Jake Arrieta walked off the mound after Game 4 of the 2017 NLCS with his head held high. He was met with a chorus of cheers that meant more than just congratulating him on a great outing. It even meant more than thanking him for keeping the season alive. It was an acknowledgement of the likely conclusion that this would be the last time Jake Arrieta would ever pitch a game at Wrigley Field. It was.
It was an ending that the show runners for Game of Thrones should have taken note of. “The noble knight walks off into the dark sky, knowing this battle had been his last. Even if this wasn’t enough to turn the tide of the war, he knew he had played his part.” Much better than exiling him off to the tundra, I guess.
Theo Epstein shied away from many media overtures to commit to extending Arrieta’s contract. He and his team seemed confident they could spend they’re money on a pitcher who, while maybe never reaching the high’s of Arrieta’s 2015 campaign, would be able to produce better median production than Jake did when he wasn’t “dominant.”
The man they settled on was Yu Darvish. Brought over from Japan in 2012, Darvish sported some of the highest quality “stuff” in baseball earning All Star honors in 4 of his first 5 seasons. Injuries beleaguered his other two seasons in Texas, and he was traded as a rental to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2017. The same Darvish was on the mound in Game 2 of the 2017 NLCS we spoke of earlier. He pitched a 6.1-inning gem. He only allowed one run against that stacked Cubs lineup, and the Dodgers won 6-1.
I’d venture to guess that performance is what sold the Epstein camp on Darvish over Arrieta, injuries and playoff woes aside. This guy had better pitches in his arsenal to be better over the long haul than Arrieta. Optimal Jake might be better than optimal Yu, but average Yu had average Jake beat. Baseball, especially the way Epstein sees it, is not a game that bets on “optimal.” It bets on averages over long stretches of time. The ink dried on Darvish’s 6-year $126 million contract with the North Siders around February. It took Arietta a month more to finalize a 3-year, $75 million deal with Philadelphia. The open market had agreed with the Cubs’ bet, but what does hindsight say?
Darvish’s 1st year with Chicago was an unmitigated disaster. He battled physical and psychological woes. The split-numbers will change based on which pundit you ask. Believers on Darvish will say his arm-problems were much worse than he or the club let on. Detractors will say he just doesn’t have the psyche to deal with the scrutiny of a major market ball club, and that exacerbated a surmountable injury. Arrieta put up modest numbers in Philly. He posted a 3.96 ERA, but he gets the nod over Darvish because he was the only one with “the best ability out there,” availability.
Year 2, while early, at least gives us a look at what it’s like when both are pitching. Darvish posts a 2-3 record with a 5.14 ERA. He’s struggled to stay in games, and the Cubs seem to be taking it pretty easy with the expectations. It’s been a slow-but-sure rebuild of his confidence. Arrieta is 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA. Slightly better, but both players currently show a -.01 WAA adj, a WAR stat that takes into account the “high-leverage” nature of when a pitcher is on the mound. The basic conclusion being that both are, at best, neutral effects on their team at the moment. That’s not what either team paid for in 2017.
The unfortunate conclusion is that there’s more story to be written about the Cubs decision to bring in Darvish and oust Arrieta. It was a long-term bet, and unforeseen circumstances dictated that we still have a ways to go before that term has been met. On Monday night, the two will have their first head-to-head duel since joining their current teams. Arrieta is no stranger to big performances inside the Friendly Confines. A first from Darvish tonight would go a long in showing Cubs fans that there’s many more on the horizon, and that he was in fact the right long-term play for the ball club.
– Jake Logli, SportsFan 1330